U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russia is implementing a plan to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine by conducting a military exercise. The exercise, called Operation False Flag, took place in eastern Ukraine.
White House press secretary Saqi said on Friday (January 14) that intelligence agencies have discovered that Russia is launching a disinformation campaign on social media that presents Ukraine as an aggressor and will soon spread to eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian forces attack.
Saqi said Russia has dispatched a group of urban warfare-trained special operators who are adept at using explosives to wreak havoc on the forces of Russian proxies, and then put the blame on Ukraine. It was part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
Saki expressed concern about the Russian government's planned invasion of Ukraine. She said that "if diplomatic efforts fail", Russia would launch an invasion of Ukraine "which could lead to massive human rights violations and war crimes".
Pentagon spokesman John Colby called the intelligence "very credible." An unnamed U.S. official said the intelligence was derived from intercepted communications and observations of the movement of people, the Associated Press said.
Intelligence shows that the Russian invasion may begin in mid-January to mid-February.
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, who plans to visit Kiev this week, reiterated Canada's support for Ukraine to defend its sovereignty, strengthen its defenses and deter Russia's "aggressive actions," Reuters reported.
Canada has a significant and politically influential Ukrainian immigrant population. They have taken a hard line against Russia since Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.
Jolly also said that Canada will work with international partners to maintain a rules-based international order.
Ukraine is also monitoring Russia for spreading disinformation. Ukrainian media reported on Friday that Ukrainian authorities believe Russian intelligence agencies are planning a "false flag" incident to provoke a military conflict.
The intelligence release follows a series of talks between Russia and the United States and its Western allies in Europe this week in an effort to prevent the crisis from escalating.
Still, White House national security adviser John Sullivan said on Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community has not yet come to an assessment that Russia is clearly prepared to resort to military action. Russia has assembled about 100,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Sullivan believes that Russia is preparing to shift the blame for the invasion of Ukraine, if Putin decides. Sullivan said Russia has been planning "sabotage and information operations" to frame Ukraine as an excuse to attack Russian troops in eastern Ukraine.
Sullivan points out that this is very similar to what happened before the Kremlin annexed Crimea in 2014.
The Crimea crisis came as Ukraine sought to strengthen ties with the West. To stem the momentum, Russia has ramped up propaganda that Russians living in eastern Ukraine are being persecuted by the authorities.
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